A comparison of health expectancies over 10 years: implications for elderly service needs in Hong Kong
Publication in refereed journal


摘要ObjectivesWe aimed to estimate health expectancies at age 65based on physical and cognitive functionin 2001-2002 and 2011-2012and project future needs for carers from 2021to 2041.MethodsData from the Elderly Health Centres (EHCs) of the Department of Health of the Government of Hong Kong comprising of people aged 65 years or older who enrolled between 2001 and 2002 (EHC 2001-2002) and between 2011 and 2012 (EHC 2011-2012) provided proportion estimates for physical impairment (assessed by independence in activities of daily living) and cognitive impairment (assessed by Abbreviated Mental Test/Mini-Mental Status Examination and self-reported doctor diagnosis of dementia). Health expectancies (years lived with/without physical and/or cognitive impairment) were calculated by Sullivan's method. The proportions of physical and/or cognitive impairment were used to project future needs for carers.ResultsBetween 2001-2002 and 2011-2012, years lived without physical/cognitiveimpairment decreased for men but increased for women, both of whichwere less than the increases in totallife expectancy. Men assessed in 2011-2012 (classified as EHC 2011-2012) lived more years with physical and/or cognitive impairment than thoseassessed in 2001-2002 (classified as EHC 2001-2002), and women in EHC 2011-2012 lived more years with physical impairment, but fewer years with cognitive impairment than thosein EHC 2001-2002, and women enrolled in EHC 2011-2012 lived more years with physical impairment, but fewer years with cognitive impairment than those in EHC 2001-2002. As populations age, the number of carers needed is expected to increase from 344,000 in 2021 to 629,000 by 2041, or an increase of 82.9%.Sensitivity analyses excluding the participants who had been assessed in 2011-2012 from EHC 2001-2002 gave similar estimations.ConclusionsIncreased life expectancy was not accompanied byan increase in years lived without physical/cognitive impairment.These findingssuggestthat people will live longer but could be more dependent, which wouldhave considerable implications for elderly serviceneeds in Hong Kong.
著者Yu R, Leung J, Lum CM, Auyeung TW, Lee JSW, Lee R, Woo J
期刊名稱International Journal of Public Health
頁次731 - 742
關鍵詞Life expectancy, Healthylife expectancy, Physical impairment, Cognitive impairment, Elderly services, Health expectancy
Web of Science 學科類別Public, Environmental & Occupational Health;Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

上次更新時間 2021-19-09 於 00:04