Association between meteorological factors, spatiotemporal effects, and prevalence of influenza A subtype H7 in environmental samples in Zhejiang province, China
Publication in refereed journal

替代計量分析
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其它資訊
摘要Background:
Human infection with the H7N9 virus has been reported recurrently since spring 2013. Given low pathogenicity of the virus in poultry, the outbreak cannot be noticed easily until a case of human infection is reported. Studies showed that the prevalence of influenza A subtype H7 in environmental samples is associated with the number of human H7N9 infection, with the latter associated with meteorological factors. Understanding the association between meteorological factors and the prevalence of H7 subtype in the environmental samples can shed light on how the virus propagates in the environment for disease control.

Method:
Environmental samples and meteorological data (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed) collected in Zhejiang province, China, during 2013–2017 were used. A Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic spatiotemporal model which captures spatiotemporal effects was adopted to model the prevalence of H7 subtype with the meteorological factors.

Results:
The monthly overall prevalence of H7 subtype in the environmental samples was usually <30%. Compared with the odds at median, moderately low precipitation (49.19–115.60 mm), moderately long sunshine duration (4.22–9.25 h) and low temperature (<9.33 °C) were statistically significantly associated with a higher adjusted odds of detecting an H7-positive sample, whereas moderately high precipitation (119.51–146.85 mm), short and moderately short sunshine duration (<1.77 h; 4.00–4.17 h), and high temperature (>23.09 °C) were statistically significantly associated with a lower adjusted odds. The adjusted odds increased multiplicatively by 1.11 per 1% increase in relative humidity.

Conclusion:
Since the prevalence of H7 subtype in environmental samples was associated with meteorological conditions and the number of human H7N9 infection, an environmental surveillance program which incorporates meteorological conditions in planning allows for early detection of the spread of the virus in the environment and better preparation for the outbreak in the human population.
出版社接受日期30.01.2019
著者Lau SYF, Chen E, Wang M, Cheng W, Zee BCY, Han X, Yu Z, Sun R, Chong KC, Wang X
期刊名稱Science of the Total Environment
出版年份2019
月份5
日期1
卷號663
頁次793 - 803
國際標準期刊號0048-9697
電子國際標準期刊號1879-1026
語言美式英語

上次更新時間 2021-28-02 於 02:17