To travel or not to travel: ‘Weather’ is the question. Modelling the effect of local weather conditions on bus ridership
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AbstractWhile the influence of weather on public transport performance and ridership has been the topic
for some research, the real-time response of transit usage to variations in weather conditions is
yet to be fully understood. This paper redresses this gap by modelling the effect that local
weather conditions exert on hourly bus ridership in sub-tropical Brisbane, Australia. Drawing on
a transit smart card data set and detailed weather measurements, a suite of time-series regression
models are computed to capture the concurrent and lagged effects that weather conditions exert
on bus ridership. Our findings highlight that changes in particularly temperature and rainfall
were found to induce significant hour-to-hour changes in bus ridership, with such effects varying
markedly across both a 24 h period and the transit network. These results are important for
public transport service operations in their capacity to inform timely responses to real-time
changes in passengers’ travel demand induced by the onset of particular weather conditions.
Acceptance Date05/11/2017
All Author(s) ListSui Tao, Jonathan Corcoran, Francisco Rowe, Mark Hickman
Journal nameTransportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
Volume Number86
Place of PublicationNew York
Pages147 - 167
LanguagesEnglish-United Kingdom
KeywordsPublic transport, Weather, Time-series modelling, Travel behaviour

Last updated on 2021-20-09 at 23:33