Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework
Publication in refereed journal

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摘要Land-use changes under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been analyzed globally, but how regional and national land use respond to the global mitigation policies is seldom explored, which poses difficulties in regional environmental adaptation and decision-making. China, as a major food consuming and biofuel production country, would suffer great uncertainties in future land-use dynamics under the global scenarios. Here, we present a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework, integrating Global Change Assessment Model and Future Land Use Simulation Model, to evaluate the potential land use projections of China from 2010 to 2100. Eight scenarios with different combinations of SSPs and radiative forcing targets of RCPs are designed, to analyze the impacts of the global socioeconomic and emission assumptions on regional mitigations and land-use changes. We recalibrated the historical land use data and urban dynamics of China to improve the consistency of modeling results with the actual regional changes. Meanwhile, differences in land use dynamics are demonstrated by spatial downscaling, which are jointly affected by the global assumptions and local driving factors, showing a fierce competition between the crop and forest. We find that the regional crop changes are sensitive to the socioeconomic dynamics as well as the bioenergy production, while different carbon regimes drive the forest changes in unexpected ways. Besides, overall heterogeneous landscape patterns and similar spatial suitability maps are found in distributions of land-use change between the emission and socioeconomic scenarios. The results indicate that this framework embedded with the consideration of anthropogenic managements as well as the detailed interactions of local environments provides an effective way to investigate regional land use response to a range of alternative future pathways.
出版社接受日期02.04.2018
著者Na Dong, Lan You, Wenjia Cai, Gang Li, Hui Lin
期刊名稱Global Environmental Change
出版年份2018
月份5
卷號50
出版社Elsevier
出版地England
頁次164 - 177
國際標準期刊號0959-3780
語言英式英語
關鍵詞Land use,GCAM,Scenarios,SSP,Emission,Climate mitigation

上次更新時間 2020-16-09 於 00:48