On the performance of naïve, analyst and composite earnings forecasts: Evidence from Hong Kong
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AbstractIn this paper, we compare the information content and performance of naïve, analyst and composite forecasts in Hong Kong. Empirical evidence shows that superior performance can be obtained by a composite measure combining both analyst and naïve forecasts. In addition, analyst forecasts become more conditionally efficient over the naïve model as the actual announcement approaches. The superiority and timing advantage of analyst forecasts suggest that more emphasis should be placed on the services of analysts for predicting future earnings figures, particularly when the announcement is approaching. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2003.
All Author(s) ListCheng J.W., Fan D.K., So R.W.
Journal nameJournal of International Financial Management and Accounting
Year2003
Month12
Day1
Volume Number14
Issue Number2
PublisherBlackwell Publishing Inc.
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
Pages146 - 165
ISSN0954-1314
LanguagesEnglish-United Kingdom

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