An update of global burden of pertussis in children aged below 5 years
Other conference paper

New data on the protective effect of incomplete pertussis vaccination has become available since publication of Crowcroft's pertussis disease burden model that used 1999 data (1). One dose of pertussis vaccine is estimated to protect against 50% of severe disease, and two doses at least 80%. This study revised the Crowcroft model and used 2014 country-level data to provide estimates regional and global pertussis cases and deaths for children aged below 5 years.

United Nations population estimates and WHO and UNICEF data of national pertussis immunisation coverage were used. Estimates were made for vaccine effectiveness against pertussis cases and deaths for 1, 2 and 3 doses, probability of infection in low and high coverage countries, and case fatality ratios in low and high mortality countries for children aged below 1 year and 1 to 4 years. An updated classification method was used to assign countries to low or high mortality groups.

The updated model estimated 24.1 million pertussis cases and 160,700 deaths in children aged below 5 years in 2014. In the sensitivity analyses, the estimated numbers of pertussis cases ranged from 7 to 40 million and the estimated numbers of deaths from 38,000 to 670,000.

Compared with the 1999 pertussis burden estimates, the numbers of cases and deaths have fallen greatly reflecting improvements in vaccination coverage, inclusion of incomplete vaccination protection and improved classification of country mortality groups. Wide uncertainty estimates with the model sensitivity analysis emphasised the importance of improving surveillance to enhance country-level decision making for pertussis control.

(1) Crowcroft NS, Stein C, Duclos P, Birmingham M. How best to estimate the global burden of pertussis? Lancet Infect Dis 2003 Jul;3(7):413-8.
著者Yeung KHT, Duclos P, Nelson EAS, Hutubessy RCW
會議名稱5th Annual Meeting of the European Society for Paediatric Infectious Diseases

上次更新時間 2018-22-01 於 12:53