Urban heat islands in Hong Kong: statistical modeling and trend detection
Publication in refereed journal


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摘要Urban heat islands (UHIs), usually defined as temperature differences between urban areas and their surrounding rural areas, are one of the most significant anthropogenic modifications to the Earth's climate. This study applies the extreme value theory to model and detect trends in extreme UHI events in Hong Kong, which have rarely been documented. Extreme UHI events are defined as UHIs with intensity higher than a specific threshold, 4.8 for summer and 7.8 A degrees C for winter. Statistical modeling based on extreme value theory is found to permit realistic modeling of these extreme events. Trends of extreme UHI intensity, frequency, and duration are introduced through changes in parameters of generalized Pareto, Poisson, and geometric distributions, respectively. During the 27-year study period, none of the quantities in winter analyzed in this study increased significantly. The annual mean summertime daily maximum UHI intensities, which are samples from a Gaussian distribution, show an increasing but nonsignificant linear trend. However, the intensity of extreme UHI events in summer is increasing significantly, which implies that the risk of mortality and heat-related diseases due to heat stress at night (when the daily maximum UHI occurs) in summer is also increasing. The warming climate has threatened and will continue to threaten inhabitants of this subtropical high-density city. Strategies for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, such as adding greenery and planning a city with good natural ventilation, are needed.
著者Wang WW, Zhou W, Ng EYY, Xu Y
期刊名稱Natural Hazards
詳細描述Vol. 83,
出版年份2016
月份9
日期1
卷號83
期次2
出版社SPRINGER
頁次885 - 907
國際標準期刊號0921-030X
電子國際標準期刊號1573-0840
語言英式英語
關鍵詞Extreme value theory; Generalized Pareto distribution; Parametric trend; Peaks-over-threshold model; Urban heat island
Web of Science 學科類別Geology; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Water Resources

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