Validation of a risk prediction score for proximal neoplasia in colorectal cancer screening: a prospective colonoscopy study
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AbstractThis study developed a clinical scoring system to predict the risks of PN among screening participants for colorectal cancer. We recruited 5,789 Chinese asymptomatic screening participants who received colonoscopy in Hong Kong (2008-2014). From random sampling of 2,000 participants, the independent risk factors were evaluated for PN using binary regression analysis. The odds ratios for significant risk factors were used to develop a scoring system, with scores stratified into 'average risk' (AR):0-2 and 'high risk' (HR):3-5. The other 3,789 subjects formed an independent validation cohort. Each participant received a score calculated based on their risk factors. The performance of the scoring system was evaluated. The proportion of PN in the derivation and validation cohorts was 12.6% and 12.9%, respectively. Based on age, gender, family history, body mass index and self-reported ischaemic heart disease, 85.0% and 15.0% in the validation cohort were classified as AR and HR, respectively. Their prevalence of PN was 12.0% and 18.1%, respectively. Participants in the HR group had 1.51-fold (95% CI = 1.24-1.84, p < 0.001) higher risk of PN than the AR group. The overall c-statistics of the prediction model was 0.71(0.02). The scoring system is useful in predicting the risk of PN to prioritize patients for colonoscopy.
All Author(s) ListWong MCS, Ching JYL, Chan VCW, Tang RSY, Luk AKC, Lam TYT, Wong SSH, Ng SC, Ng SSM, Wu JCY, Chan FKL, Sung JJY
Journal nameScientific Reports
Year2016
Month2
Day8
Volume Number6
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Pages20396
ISSN2045-2322
eISSN2045-2322
LanguagesEnglish-United Kingdom
Web of Science Subject CategoriesMultidisciplinary Sciences; Science & Technology - Other Topics

Last updated on 2020-04-07 at 02:20