Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country
Publication in refereed journal


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摘要During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0.46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0.7% compared to 0.003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.
著者Chong KC, Fong HF, Zee CY
期刊名稱Epidemiology and Infection
出版年份2014
月份5
日期1
卷號142
期次5
出版社CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
頁次955 - 963
國際標準期刊號0950-2688
電子國際標準期刊號1469-4409
語言英式英語
關鍵詞Influenza; mathematical modelling; surveillance; Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model; travellers' infection
Web of Science 學科類別Infectious Diseases; INFECTIOUS DISEASES; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH, SCI

上次更新時間 2021-11-04 於 00:14