Reconstruction of epidemic curves for pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 at city and sub-city levels
Publication in refereed journal


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摘要To better describe the epidemiology of influenza at local level, the time course of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in the city of Hong Kong was reconstructed from notification data after decomposition procedure and time series analysis. GIS (geographic information system) methodology was incorporated for assessing spatial variation. Between May and September 2009, a total of 24415 cases were successfully geocoded, out of 25473 (95.8%) reports in the original dataset. The reconstructed epidemic curve was characterized by a small initial peak, a nadir followed by rapid rise to the ultimate plateau. The full course of the epidemic had lasted for about 6 months. Despite the small geographic area of only 1000 Km(2), distinctive spatial variation was observed in the configuration of the curves across 6 geographic regions. With the relatively uniform physical and climatic environment within Hong Kong, the temporo-spatial variability of influenza spread could only be explained by the heterogeneous population structure and mobility patterns. Our study illustrated how an epidemic curve could be reconstructed using regularly collected surveillance data, which would be useful in informing intervention at local levels.
著者Lee SS, Wong NS
期刊名稱Virology Journal
出版年份2010
月份11
日期16
卷號7
出版社BIOMED CENTRAL LTD
國際標準期刊號1743-422X
語言英式英語
Web of Science 學科類別Virology; VIROLOGY

上次更新時間 2020-24-10 於 00:53