SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study
Publication in refereed journal


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替代計量分析
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其它資訊
摘要Background
Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.

Methods
The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.

Results
NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.

Conclusion
As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.
出版社接受日期24.03.2021
著者COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative
期刊名稱British Journal of Surgery
出版年份2021
月份9
卷號108
期次9
出版社Oxford University Press
出版地UK
頁次1056 - 1063
國際標準期刊號0007-1323
語言英式英語

上次更新時間 2024-27-02 於 00:01