Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study
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AbstractNovel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in December 2019, has become a pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence and mortality worldwide. This study included 1,908,197 confirmed cases of and 119,257 deaths from COVID-19 from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April, 2020. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with city-/country-level random intercept to investigate the associations between COVID19 incidence and daily temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. A series of confounders were considered in the analysis including demographics, socioeconomics, geographic locations, and political strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the associations. The COVID-19 incidence showed a stronger association with temperature than with relative humidity or wind speed. An inverse association was identified between the COVID-19 incidence and temperature. The corresponding 14-day cumulative relative risk was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-1.36] at 5 °C, and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.86) at 22 °C with reference to the risk at 11 °C. An inverse J-shaped association was observed between relative humidity and the COVID-19 incidence, with the highest risk at 72%. A higher wind speed was associated with a generally lower incidence of COVID-19, although the associations were weak. Sensitivity analyses generally yielded similar results. The COVID-19 incidence decreased with the increase of temperature. Our study suggests that the spread of COVID-19 may slow during summer but may increase during winter.
Acceptance Date07/11/2020
All Author(s) ListGuo C, Bo YC, Lin C, Li HB, Zeng Y, Zhang Y, Hossain MS, Chan JWM, Yeung DW, Kwok KO, Wong SYS, Lau AKH, Lao XQ
Journal nameScience of the Total Environment
Year2021
Month2
Volume Number757
Article number143783
Pages1 - 8
ISSN0048-9697
eISSN1879-1026
LanguagesEnglish-United Kingdom
KeywordsCOVID-19 incidence, COVID-19 mortality, Meteorology, Temperature

Last updated on 2021-30-07 at 23:56