Evolving Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong From January to August 2020: Retrospective Study
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AbstractBackground:
COVID-19 has plagued the globe, with multiple SARS-CoV-2 clusters hinting at its evolving epidemiology. Since the disease course is governed by important epidemiological parameters, including containment delays (time between
symptom onset and mandatory isolation) and serial intervals (time between symptom onsets of infector-infectee pairs), understanding their temporal changes helps to guide interventions.
Objective:
This study aims to characterize the epidemiology of the first two epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Hong Kong by
doing the following: (1) estimating the containment delays, serial intervals, effective reproductive number (Rt), and proportion of asymptomatic cases; (2) identifying factors associated with the temporal changes of the containment delays and serial intervals; and (3) depicting COVID-19 transmission by age assortativity and types of social settings.
Methods:
We retrieved the official case series and the Apple mobility data of Hong Kong from January-August 2020. The
empirical containment delays and serial intervals were fitted to theoretical distributions, and factors associated with their temporal changes were quantified in terms of percentage contribution (the percentage change in the predicted outcome from multivariable regression models relative to a predefined comparator). Rt was estimated with the best fitted distribution for serial intervals.
Results:
The two epidemic waves were characterized by imported cases and clusters of local cases, respectively. Rt peaked at 2.39 (wave 1) and 3.04 (wave 2). The proportion of asymptomatic cases decreased from 34.9% (0-9 years) to 12.9% (≥80 years). Log-normal distribution best fitted the 1574 containment delays (mean 5.18 [SD 3.04] days) and the 558 serial intervals (17 negative; mean 4.74 [SD 4.24] days). Containment delays decreased with involvement in a cluster (percentage contribution: 10.08%-20.73%) and case detection in the public health care sector (percentage contribution: 27.56%, 95% CI 22.52%-32.33%). Serial intervals decreased over time (6.70 days in wave 1 versus 4.35 days in wave 2) and with tertiary transmission or beyond (percentage contribution: –50.75% to –17.31%), but were lengthened by mobility (percentage contribution: 0.83%). Transmission within the same age band was high (18.1%). Households (69.9%) and social settings (20.3%) were where transmission commonly occurred.
Conclusions:
First, the factors associated with reduced containment delays suggested government-enacted interventions were
useful for achieving outbreak control and should be further encouraged. Second, the shorter serial intervals associated with the composite mobility index calls for empirical surveys to disentangle the role of different contact dimensions in disease transmission. Third, the pre-symptomatic transmission and asymptomatic cases underscore the importance of remaining vigilant about COVID-19. Fourth, the time-varying epidemiological parameters suggest the need to incorporate their temporal variations when depicting the epidemic trajectory. Fifth, the high proportion of transmission events occurring within the same age group supports the ban on gatherings outside of households, and underscores the need for residence-centered preventive measures.
COVID-19 has plagued the globe, with multiple SARS-CoV-2 clusters hinting at its evolving epidemiology. Since the disease course is governed by important epidemiological parameters, including containment delays (time between
symptom onset and mandatory isolation) and serial intervals (time between symptom onsets of infector-infectee pairs), understanding their temporal changes helps to guide interventions.
Objective:
This study aims to characterize the epidemiology of the first two epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Hong Kong by
doing the following: (1) estimating the containment delays, serial intervals, effective reproductive number (Rt), and proportion of asymptomatic cases; (2) identifying factors associated with the temporal changes of the containment delays and serial intervals; and (3) depicting COVID-19 transmission by age assortativity and types of social settings.
Methods:
We retrieved the official case series and the Apple mobility data of Hong Kong from January-August 2020. The
empirical containment delays and serial intervals were fitted to theoretical distributions, and factors associated with their temporal changes were quantified in terms of percentage contribution (the percentage change in the predicted outcome from multivariable regression models relative to a predefined comparator). Rt was estimated with the best fitted distribution for serial intervals.
Results:
The two epidemic waves were characterized by imported cases and clusters of local cases, respectively. Rt peaked at 2.39 (wave 1) and 3.04 (wave 2). The proportion of asymptomatic cases decreased from 34.9% (0-9 years) to 12.9% (≥80 years). Log-normal distribution best fitted the 1574 containment delays (mean 5.18 [SD 3.04] days) and the 558 serial intervals (17 negative; mean 4.74 [SD 4.24] days). Containment delays decreased with involvement in a cluster (percentage contribution: 10.08%-20.73%) and case detection in the public health care sector (percentage contribution: 27.56%, 95% CI 22.52%-32.33%). Serial intervals decreased over time (6.70 days in wave 1 versus 4.35 days in wave 2) and with tertiary transmission or beyond (percentage contribution: –50.75% to –17.31%), but were lengthened by mobility (percentage contribution: 0.83%). Transmission within the same age band was high (18.1%). Households (69.9%) and social settings (20.3%) were where transmission commonly occurred.
Conclusions:
First, the factors associated with reduced containment delays suggested government-enacted interventions were
useful for achieving outbreak control and should be further encouraged. Second, the shorter serial intervals associated with the composite mobility index calls for empirical surveys to disentangle the role of different contact dimensions in disease transmission. Third, the pre-symptomatic transmission and asymptomatic cases underscore the importance of remaining vigilant about COVID-19. Fourth, the time-varying epidemiological parameters suggest the need to incorporate their temporal variations when depicting the epidemic trajectory. Fifth, the high proportion of transmission events occurring within the same age group supports the ban on gatherings outside of households, and underscores the need for residence-centered preventive measures.
All Author(s) ListKwok KO, Wei WI, Huang Y, Kam KM, Chan EYY, Riley S, Chan HHH, Hui DSC, Wong SYS, Yeoh EK
Journal nameJournal of Medical Internet research
Year2021
Month4
Volume Number23
Issue Number4
Article numbere26645
Pages1 - 12
ISSN1438-8871
LanguagesEnglish-United Kingdom
KeywordsSARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; evolving epidemiology; containment delay; serial interval; Hong Kong; epidemiology; public health; transmission; China; intervention; case study
