Outshine to Outbid: Weather-Induced Sentiment and the Housing Market
Publication in refereed journal

香港中文大學研究人員

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摘要This paper examines how sentiment affects homebuyers’ housing transaction decisions with a focus on auction sales. Utilizing housing transaction data in Sydney from 2000 to 2014, we find that transaction prices are significantly higher for auction sales compared with private sales, consistent with the notion of a “winner’s curse.” Four sentiment proxies, including three weather-based sentiment proxies and a survey-based sentiment index, are used to derive novel measures of sentiment, revealing that higher sentiment is associated with higher transaction prices, particularly for auction sales. Moreover, sentiment boosts sale prices particularly when the housing market is in boom; however, investors are not more prone to sentiment bias than are owner-occupiers. Sentiment exhibits an asymmetric effect in that low sentiment dampens price to a greater extent compared with the price-boosting effect of high sentiment. Our result is robust to using national sport events as sentiment shocks, selection bias, and participation constraints. Potential mechanisms include present-biased preferences and sentiment-related projection bias. Overall, our evidence sheds light on the role of sentiment in housing market decisions.
出版社接受日期12.07.2019
著者Maggie Rong Hu, Adrian Lee
期刊名稱Management Science
出版年份2020
月份3
卷號66
期次3
出版社The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
出版地5521 Research Park Drive, Suite 200 Catonsville, MD 21228 USA
頁次1440 - 1472
國際標準期刊號0025-1909
電子國際標準期刊號1526-5501
語言美式英語
關鍵詞auction, sentiment, weather, housing price, behavioral bias

上次更新時間 2021-10-01 於 00:21