Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China
Publication in refereed journal

香港中文大學研究人員

引用次數
替代計量分析
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其它資訊
摘要We quantify the causal impact of human mobility restrictions, particularly the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, 2020, on the containment and delay of the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We employ difference-in-differences (DID) estimations to disentangle the lockdown effect on human mobility reductions from other confounding effects including panic effect, virus effect, and the Spring Festival effect. The lockdown of Wuhan reduced inflows to Wuhan by 76.98%, outflows from Wuhan by 56.31%, and within-Wuhan movements by 55.91%. We also estimate the dynamic effects of up to 22 lagged population inflows from Wuhan and other Hubei cities – the epicenter of the 2019-nCoV outbreak – on the destination cities' new infection cases. We also provide evidence that the enhanced social distancing policies in the 98 Chinese cities outside Hubei province were effective in reducing the impact of the population inflows from the epicenter cities in Hubei province on the spread of 2019-nCoV in the destination cities. We find that in the counterfactual world in which Wuhan were not locked down on January 23, 2020, the COVID-19 cases would be 105.27% higher in the 347 Chinese cities outside Hubei province. Our findings are relevant in the global efforts in pandemic containment.
出版社接受日期25.08.2020
著者Hanming Fang, Long Wang, Yang Yang
期刊名稱Journal of Public Economics
出版年份2020
月份11
卷號191
出版社Elsevier
文章號碼104272
國際標準期刊號0047-2727
語言美式英語
關鍵詞Human mobility, Lockdown, Social distancing, 2019-nCoV, COVID-19, Disease outbreak

上次更新時間 2021-24-01 於 23:44