Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method
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摘要We have investigated changes of western North Pacific land-falling tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics due to warmer climate conditions, using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) technique. Historical simulations of three intense TCs making landfall in Pearl River Delta (PRD) were first conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The same cases were then re-simulated by superimposing near- (2015–2039) and far- (2075–2099) future temperature and humidity changes onto the background climate; these changes were derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Peak intensities of TCs (maximum surface wind in their lifetimes) are expected to increase by ~ (3) 10% in the (near) far future. Further experiments indicate that surface warming alone acts to intensify TCs by enhancing sea surface heat flux, while warmer atmosphere acts in the opposite way by increasing the stability. In the far future, associated storm surges are also estimated to increase by about 8.5%, computed by the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Combined with sea level rise and estimated land vertical displacement, TC-induced storm tide affecting PRD will increase by ~1 m in the future 2075–2099 period.
著者J. Chen, Z. Wang, C.-Y. Tam, N.-C. Lau, D.-S. D. Lau, H.Y. Mok
期刊名稱Scientific Reports
出版年份2020
月份12
卷號10
期次1
出版社Nature Research (part of Springer Nature): Fully open access journals / Nature Publishing Group
文章號碼1965
國際標準期刊號2045-2322
電子國際標準期刊號2045-2322
語言美式英語

上次更新時間 2020-25-09 於 12:42