A new hybrid approach for evaluating technology risks and opportunities in the energy transition in Ireland
Publication in refereed journal

香港中文大學研究人員

引用次數
Scopus ( 21/11/2020)
替代計量分析
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其它資訊
摘要We combine energy systems optimization models (ESOM), multi-criteria assessment (MCA) and a stakeholder workshop to evaluate decarbonization risks, trade-offs and opportunities for Ireland. Using an ESOM of Ireland, we develop decarbonisation scenario ensembles with variations across multiple dimensions, including carbon budget and technology availability as informed by a stakeholder workshop. For these scenario ensembles, we quantify investment risk and technology robustness and use these new attributes to conduct an MCA of technology risks, trade-offs and opportunities. Results include an assessment of technology opportunities for two investor archetypes, i.e., risk minimizing and return maximizing, and a sensitivity analysis of the MCA weights using Monte Carlo simulation. This represents a new methodology which demonstrates a synthesis of insights into technology opportunities associated with Ireland’s energy transition and their resilience across risk and economic criteria. By incorporating and displaying results for a diversity of perspectives, this work underlines the importance of transdisciplinary research.
出版社接受日期24.01.2020
著者Tarun Sharma, Brian Ó Gallachóir, Fionn Rogan
期刊名稱Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
出版年份2020
月份6
卷號35
出版社Elsevier
頁次429 - 444
國際標準期刊號2210-4224
電子國際標準期刊號2210-4232
語言英式英語
關鍵詞Scenario ensembles, Stakeholder consultation, Risks & opportunities, Quantifying trade-offs

上次更新時間 2020-22-11 於 00:10