Latitudes mediate the association between influenza activity and meteorological factors: A nationwide modelling analysis in 45 Japanese prefectures from 2000 to 2018
Publication in refereed journal

替代計量分析
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其它資訊
摘要Background:
Cold and dry conditions were well-documented as a major determinant of influenza seasonality in temperate countries but the association may not be consistent when the climate in temperate areas is closer to that in sub-tropical areas. We hypothesized latitudes may mediate the association between influenza activity and meteorological factors in 45 Japanese prefectures.

Methods:
We used the weekly incidence of influenza-like illness of 45 prefectures from 2000 to 2018 as a proxy for influenza activity in Japan, a temperate country lying off the east coast of Asia. A combination of generalized additive model and distributed lag nonlinear model was adopted to investigate the associations between meteorological factors (average temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall, and actual vapour pressure, a proxy for absolute humidity) and the influenza incidence. Kendall’s tau b (s) and Spearman correlation coefficient (rs) between latitude and the adjusted relative risk (ARR) of each meteorological factor were also assessed.

Results:
A higher vapour pressure was significantly associated with a lower influenza risk but the ARR strongly weakened along with a lower latitude (s = 0.23, p-value = 0.02; rs = 0.33, p-value = 0.03). Lower temperature and lower relatively humidity were significantly associated with higher influenza risks in over 65% and around 40% of the prefectures respectively but the strength and significance of the correlations between their ARRs and latitude were weaker than that from vapour pressure.

Conclusion:
Even though the range of latitudes in Japan is small (26 degrees N-43 degrees N), the relationships between meteorological factors and influenza activity were mediated by the latitude. Our study echoed absolute humidity played a more important role in relating influenza risk, but we on the other hand showed its effect on influenza activity could be hampered in a low-latitude temperate region, which have a warmer climate. These findings thus offer a high-resolution characterization of the role of meteorological factors on influenza seasonality.
出版社接受日期28.09.2019
著者Chong KC, Liang JB, Jia KM, Kobayashi N, Wang MHT, Wei L, Lau SYF, Sumi A
期刊名稱Science of the Total Environment
出版年份2020
月份2
卷號703
出版社Elsevier
文章號碼134727
國際標準期刊號0048-9697
電子國際標準期刊號1879-1026
語言英式英語
關鍵詞Influenza, Temperature, Humidity, Latitude, Japan

上次更新時間 2021-06-03 於 23:46