Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Publication in refereed journal

替代計量分析
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其它資訊
摘要Backgrounds:
An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.

Methods:
Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (g), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.

Findings:
The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96–2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89–4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R0.

Conclusion:
The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.
出版社接受日期27.01.2020
著者Zhao S, Lin QY, Ran JJ, Musa SS, Yang GP, Wang WM, Lou YJ, Gao DZ, Yang L, He DH, Wang MHT
期刊名稱International Journal of Infectious Diseases
出版年份2020
月份3
卷號92
出版社Elsevier
頁次214 - 217
國際標準期刊號1201-9712
電子國際標準期刊號1878-3511
語言英式英語
關鍵詞Basic reproduction number, Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

上次更新時間 2021-18-02 於 23:17