Cause-specific mortality attributable to cold and hot ambient temperatures in Hong Kong: a time-series study, 2006–2016
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AbstractBackground
This study aimed to quantify the mortality burden attributable to non-optimal cold and hot conditions from moderate and extreme temperatures in Hong Kong during 2006-2016.

Methods
The association between mortality and daily mean temperature was assessed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) integrated with a quasi-Poisson model. The cumulated effects of cold and hot temperature were firstly quantified. The attributable risks of non-optimal ambient temperature on deaths by cause-specific mortality and age groups were then estimated.

Results
A reversed J-shaped relationship was found between temperature and total mortality. The highest increase in risk was at extreme cold, with the highest relative risk (RR) for injuries of 2.18 (95%CI: 1.03-4.62), followed by the respiratory and circulatory system diseases for lag 0-21 days. Cold temperature was associated with a greater burden of death than hot temperature, with attributable fractions (AF) of 4.72% and 0.16%, respectively. Moderate temperatures played a major role in all-cause mortality with AF of 4.25%, and 0.63% for extreme temperature.

Conclusions
Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributed to moderate weather, suggesting relevant temperature-related preventive strategies and measurements should be implemented to minimize the negative impact of temperatures on population health, particularly for vulnerable sub-populations.
Acceptance Date06/03/2020
All Author(s) ListJingwen Liu, Alana Hansen, Blesson Varghese, Zhidong Liu, Michael Tong, Hong Qiu, Linwei Tian, Kevin Ka-Lun Lau, Edward Ng, Chao Ren, Peng Bi
Journal nameSustainable Cities and Society
Year2020
Month6
Volume Number57
PublisherElsevier
Article number102131
ISSN2210-6707
eISSN2210-6715
LanguagesEnglish-United Kingdom
KeywordsTemperature, Cause-specific Mortality, Attributable Risk, Time-series, Hong Kong

Last updated on 2021-17-06 at 23:29